Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $171,789$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(2.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{173,736.8}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 61.1)}}\) (asimptote \(173,736.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,281$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.44 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,689.9}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 46.2)}}\) (asimptote \(7,689.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,159$ on 2020-06-07

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $31,848$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(206 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,009.6}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 88.5)}}\) (asimptote \(39,009.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $264$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(8.88 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{326.7}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 51.8)}}\) (asimptote \(326.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,379$ on 2020-06-07

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $170,132$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(3.53 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{160,921.3}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 33.0)}}\) (asimptote \(160,921.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,692$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(944 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,516.0}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 33.0)}}\) (asimptote \(4,516.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $27,471$ on 2020-06-07

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,863$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(3.96 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,787.1}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(16,787.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $298$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(74.9 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{282.1}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 28.2)}}\) (asimptote \(282.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,474$ on 2020-06-07

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $38,808$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(921 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,889.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 85.2)}}\) (asimptote \(46,889.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $276$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(25.7 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{275.8}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(275.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,726$ on 2020-06-07

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $101,914$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(2.91 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{119,237.5}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 68.8)}}\) (asimptote \(119,237.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $712$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(39.4 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,147.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 101.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,147.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28,385$ on 2020-06-07

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $68,790$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(847 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98,450.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 87.8)}}\) (asimptote \(98,450.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $54$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.81 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,398$ on 2020-06-07

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $14,763$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(198 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,412.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 105.8)}}\) (asimptote \(30,412.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(2.21 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.5\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,269$ on 2020-06-07

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Japan recovered 90%
Georgia recovered 67%
Turkey recovered 66%
Kuwait recovered 28%
Maldives recovered 23%
Tajikistan recovered 5%

Japan⮸

Population $126,476,461$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,039$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(2.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,706.6}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 53.3)}}\) (asimptote \(16,706.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $917$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(84.1 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{961.4}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 53.5)}}\) (asimptote \(961.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,132$ on 2020-06-07

Georgia⮸

Population $3,989,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $809$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(115 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{792.0}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 47.8)}}\) (asimptote \(792.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(3.67 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 24.8)}}\) (asimptote \(13.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $122$ on 2020-06-07

Maldives⮸

Population $540,544$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,903$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(39.2 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,097.9}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 70.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,097.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8$ on 2020-06-07

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,068$ on 2020-06-07

Tajikistan⮸

Population $9,537,645$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,529$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(532 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,675.6}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 22.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,675.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $48$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(16.7 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47.7}{1 + 10^{-0.114 (t - 11.0)}}\) (asimptote \(47.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-30 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,808$ on 2020-06-07