Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $171,789$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(2.05 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{173,736.8}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 61.1)}}\) (asimptote \(173,736.8\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,281$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(1.44 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,689.9}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 46.2)}}\) (asimptote \(7,689.9\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,159$ on 2020-06-07
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $31,848$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(206 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,009.6}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 88.5)}}\) (asimptote \(39,009.6\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $264$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(8.88 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{326.7}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 51.8)}}\) (asimptote \(326.7\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,379$ on 2020-06-07
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $170,132$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(3.53 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{160,921.3}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 33.0)}}\) (asimptote \(160,921.3\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,692$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(944 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,516.0}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 33.0)}}\) (asimptote \(4,516.0\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $27,471$ on 2020-06-07
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $17,863$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(3.96 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,787.1}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(16,787.1\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $298$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(74.9 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{282.1}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 28.2)}}\) (asimptote \(282.1\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,474$ on 2020-06-07
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $38,808$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(921 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,889.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 85.2)}}\) (asimptote \(46,889.6\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $276$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(25.7 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{275.8}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(275.8\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,726$ on 2020-06-07
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $101,914$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(2.91 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{119,237.5}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 68.8)}}\) (asimptote \(119,237.5\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $712$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(39.4 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,147.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 101.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,147.9\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,385$ on 2020-06-07
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $68,790$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(847 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{98,450.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 87.8)}}\) (asimptote \(98,450.3\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $54$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(1.81 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,398$ on 2020-06-07
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $14,763$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(198 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,412.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 105.8)}}\) (asimptote \(30,412.9\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $26$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(2.21 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.5\) days)
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,269$ on 2020-06-07